主题｜Topic：Time-Consistent Fiscal Policy: Cyclical Properties and Political Cycles
时间｜Time：11月15日（周三）14: 30-16: 00
地点｜Venue：文澴楼711教室｜Class Room 711，WENHUAN
主讲｜Speaker
冯志钢，美国内布拉斯加大学奥马哈分校经济学副教授。研究领域为宏观经济学、公共财政学、及机器学习在宏观经济学的应用，研究成果发表在 International Economic Review, Quantitative Economics, Economic Theory, Review of Economic Dynamics, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 等国际著名经济学期刊。
摘要｜Abstract
In this paper we are concerned with cyclical properties and welfare of time-consistent fiscal policy in a fairly general economy with internal and external public debt and po- litical turnover. We explore the general equilibrium effects of the response of elastic labor supply and capital accumulation, the sustainability of the public debt and ma- nipulation of the bond price, the time-consistency of the optimal policy, and the added impact of the political cycle. In our baseline economy, fiscal policy is mildly pro-cyclical under external debt, and highly pro-cyclical under internal debt. We identify political cycles in taxation and government spending for the U.S. and some other advanced economies. A political cycle in taxation could be welfare improving, and adds substan- tially more volatility to economic aggregates under external debt. A political cycle in government spending is only welfare improving under internal debt, and adds roughly the same volatility under external and internal debt.
